This paper uses a two-step approach to characterize the evolution of US macroeconomic and financial variables during episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and...

This paper uses a two-step approach to characterize the evolution of US macroe- conomic and financial variables during episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second, we assess the behavior of macroeconomic and...

L’investissement public a le potentiel de stimuler la demande à court terme, et des infrastructures appropriées peuvent aussi entraîner des gains de productivité et contribuer à rendre la croissance économique plus inclusive en garantissant une égalité d’accès au marché du travail,...

This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants...

This paper provides estimates of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices for nine central and eastern European EU Member States. Using a five-variate cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) for each country and impulse responses derived from the VECM (vector error correction...

This paper aims to shed light on the role of credit supply shocks in euro area countries during the recent pre-crisis, bust, and post-crisis periods. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility à la Primiceri (2005) is estimated for each country, and the...