"This paper estimates yield curve models for the United Kingdom, where the underlying determinants have a macroeconomic interpretation. The first factor is an unobserved inflation target, the second factor is annual inflation, and the third factor is a 'Taylor rule residual', which, among other...

Long-horizon interest rates in the major international bond markets fell sharply during 2004 and 2005, at the same time as US policy rates were rising; a phenomenon famously described as a ‘conundrum' by Alan Greenspan the Federal Reserve Chairman. But it was arguably the decline in...