This paper develops and implements a backward and forward error analysis of and condition numbers for the numerical stability of the solutions of linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Comparing seven different solution methods from the literature, I demonstrate an...

The standard approach to solving linear DSGE models is to apply the QZ method. It is a one-shot algorithm that leaves the researcher with little alternative than to seek a different algorithm should the result be numerically unsatisfactory. We develop an iterative implementation of QZ that...

An efficient and accurate approach is proposed for forecasting Value at Risk [VaR] and Expected Shortfall [ES] measures in a Bayesian framework. This consists of a new adaptive importance sampling method for Quantile Estimation via Rapid Mixture of t approximations [QERMit]. As a first step the...

This paper demonstrates a failure of standard, generalized Schur (orQZ) decomposition based solutions methods for linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models when there is insufficient eigenvalue separation about the unit circle. The significance of this is demonstrated in a...

We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, for a given volatility model. We obtain precise forecasts of the tail of the distribution of returns not only for the 10-days-ahead horizon required by the...

This paper presents and compares Newton-based methods from the applied mathematics literature for solving the matrix quadratic that underlies the recursive solution of linear DSGE models. The methods are compared using nearly 100 different models from the Macroeconomic Model Data Base (MMB) and...

This paper applies structure preserving doubling methods to solve the matrix quadratic underlying the recursive solution of linear DSGE models. We present and compare two Structure-Preserving Doubling Algorithms (SDAs) to other competing methods - the QZ method, a Newton algorithm, and an...

This paper presents and compares Bernoulli iterative approaches for solving linear DSGE models. The methods are compared using nearly 100 different models from the Macroeconomic Model Data Base (MMB) and different parameterizations of the monetary policy rule in the medium-scale New Keynesian...