We construct a cross-section of stock prices and their corresponding present values of future cash flows. A regression of present value on the initial stock price should have a slope coefficient equal to 1.0. For short horizons, this is a cross-section version of checking the random walk model...

Standard models of intertemporal utility maximization assume that agents discount future utility flows at a constant rate — exponential discounting. Euler equations estimated over different time horizons should have equal discount rates. They do not. Rising term yield premia imply discount...

We develop an unobserved component model in which the short-term interest rate is composed of a stochastic trend and a stationary cycle. Using the Nelson-Siegel model of the yield curve as inspiration, we estimate an extremely parsimonious state-space model of interest rates across time and...

We estimate a monetary policy rule for the US allowing for possible frequency dependence - i.e., allowing the central bank to respond differently to more persistent innovations than to more transitory innovations, in both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Our estimation method uses...