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Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012195063
The current recession's impact on unemployment has been more pernicious than even the usual indicators show. The … credit expansion. The unemployment rate is likely to peak at 11.5 percent if today's crisis turns out to be similar to past … credit crunches. A vicious cycle with a feedback loop may continue to develop. Rising unemployment rates lead to heightened …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148800
This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012311939
economy permanently operates below capacity due to both structural unemployment and underemployment. The latter is a direct … demand and supply shocks are opposite to those of the standard case and result in a co-movement of unemployment and … explain movements of unemployment and underemployment in opposite directions. Finally, we show that uctuations in the total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012216141
In this paper, we show that underemployment and not necessarily high unemployment becomes the main measure of economic … and cost shocks can explain movements of unemployment and underemployment in opposite directions, while demand and supply … employment record and the absence of wage pressures despite low unemployment rates after the Great Recession …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243830
In this paper, we argue that credit market imperfections impact not only the level of unemployment, but also its … steady-state unemployment, but also slow down the transitional dynamics. We then provide an empirical illustration based on a … persistence of unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155160
: the large differences in unemployment risk across worker age-groups over the business cycle. Our search model features a … large real effects through firms' labor policies. Our model predicts higher unemployment risk of younger workers relative to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899920
In this paper, we argue that credit market imperfections impact not only the level of unemployment, but also its … steady-state unemployment, but also slow down the transitional dynamics. We then provide an empirical illustration based on a … persistence of unemployment. -- Credit markets ; labor markets ; unemployment ; credit constraints ; search frictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003904911
This paper introduces endogenous credit constraints in a search model of unemployment. These constraints generate …. Unemployed workers are hard to find jobs generating high and persistent unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107960
economy permanently operates below capacity due to both structural unemployment and underemployment. The latter is a direct … demand and supply shocks are opposite to those of the standard case and result in a co-movement of unemployment and … explain movements of unemployment and underemployment in opposite directions. Finally, we show that fluctuations in the total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832192