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Goodness-of-fit test for specification of semiparametric copula dependence models

Zhang, Shulin; Okhrin, Ostap; Zhou, Qian M.; Song, … - 2013

This paper concerns goodness-of-fit test for semiparametric copula models. Our contribution is two-fold: we first propose a new test constructed via the comparison between "in-sample" and "out-of-sample" pseudolikelihoods, which avoids the use of any probability integral transformations. Under...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009789426

Normality tests for latent variables

Almuzara, Martín; Amengual, Dante; Sentana, Enrique - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 10 (2019) 3, pp. 981-1017

We exploit the rationale behind the Expectation Maximization algorithm to derive simple to implement and interpret LM normality tests for the innovations of the latent variables in linear state space models against generalized hyperbolic alternatives, including symmetric and asymmetric Student...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012049323

An alternative conditional asymmetry specification for stock returns

Brännäs, Kurt; Nordman, Niklas - 2001

The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the … NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a … skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness and almost symmetry. The conditional variance and skewness measures are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115

Mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity

Haas, Markus; Mittnik, Stefan; Paolella, Marc S. - 2002

Both unconditional mixed-normal distributions and GARCH models with fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employed for modeling financial return data. We consider a mixed-normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure which allows for conditional variance in each of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767120

Identification using higher-order moments restrictions

Andrade, Philippe; Ferroni, Filippo; Melosi, Leonardo - 2023 - First draft (June 2022)

We exploit inequality restrictions on higher-order moments of the distribution of structural shocks to sharpen their identification. We show that these constraints can be treated as necessary conditions and used to shrink the set of admissible rotations. We illustrate the usefulness of this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014335939

Higher-order moment inequality restrictions for SVARs

Andrade, Philippe; Ferroni, Filippo; Melosi, Leonardo - 2025 - This version: March 2025

We introduce a method that exploits some non-Gaussian features of structural shocks to identify structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. More specifically, we propose combining inequality restrictions on the higher-order moments of the structural shocks of interest with other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015405890

Variable Selection, Estimation and Inference for Multi-Period Forecasting Problems

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2011

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-period forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models in the form of parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregressions. To account for serial correlation in the residuals of the multi-period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014042344

Joint Bayesian Inference About Impulse Responses in VAR Models

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - 2020

Structural VAR models are routinely estimated by Bayesian methods. Several recent studies have voiced concerns about the common use of posterior median (or mean) response functions in applied VAR analysis. In this paper, we show that these response functions can be misleading because in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048816

CDXIG Index, VIX and the Swap Curve Slope : A Study in Cross-Market Statistical Arbitrage

Gadiraju, Pavan - 2008

This article tries to track the CDXIG index 5y spreads by studying the effect of Equity Index Volatility (by employing VIX levels) and 5/10 US swap curve slope (calculated as the difference between the 10yr and 5yr swap rates) on the index spreads by employing an OLS regression within the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014214125

An Hourly Periodic State Space Model for Modelling French National Electricity Load

Dordonnat, V.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; … - 2008

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014220784