Historical Simulation (HS) and its variant, the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), are the most widely used Value-at-Risk forecast methods at commercial banks. These forecast methods are traditionally evaluated by means of the unconditional backtest. This paper formally shows that the...

This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the fi rst time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on...

Is inflation 'always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon' or is it fundamentally a fiscal phenomenon? The answer hinges crucially on the underlying monetary-fiscal policy regime. Because different regimes imply completely different mechanisms for price level determination and therefore starkly...