The paper investigates the importance of modeling in cay estimations from a statistical and economic perspective by observing the stochastic trend, a thus far neglected component. In order to do this, we perform an empirical analysis on US secular annual data from 1900 to 2015 considering the...

This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial health; (b) stress-tests as measures of the dynamics of responses of systemic risk...

We study versions of a general equilibrium banking model with moral hazard under either constant or increasing returns to scale of the intermediation technology used by banks to screen and/or monitor borrowers. If the intermediation technology exhibits increasing returns to scale, or it is...