We introduce a new methodology for forecasting which we call Signal Diffusion Mapping. Our approach accommodates features of real world financial data which have been ignored historically in existing forecasting methodologies. Our method builds upon well-established and accepted methods from...

The role of traditional or social media-expressed tone on stock prices is nuanced. Negative tone of traditional media articles is much more likely to convey material information than web messages. Some topics, regardless of source, are unusually negative, causing fluctuations in investor...

Given the increased attention of precious metals by investors and the finance literature as well as the growth of high frequency trading, the behaviour of intraday precious metal markets is of great interest and importance. Therefore, this paper examines the stylized facts, correlation and...

Based on a large dataset of gold ETFs, we find arbitrage opportunities in the gold ETF market which can be exploited by high-frequency traders. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to study pairs trading of gold ETFs using tick data. Able to execute their orders with minimal delay and take...

Finding what causes pricing anomalies is an important step towards improving market efficiency. The favourite-longshot bias is one of the longest-standing pricing anomalies in state-contingent claims markets. However, existing models are unable to capture its full complexity. We develop a...

Our study is the first to combine returns based and characteristics based style analysis into a single style analysis model. We use Best Fit Indices to establish the ‘investment domains' of our sample managers, along the lines of size and ‘style,' and then use our multidimensional...