This paper presents a novel dynamic factor model for non-stationary data. We begin by constructing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium growth model and show that we can represent and estimate the model using a simple linear-Gaussian (Kalman) filter. Crucially, consistent estimation...

Contrary to the number of unemployed or vacancies, the number of employees subject to social security contribu-tions (SSC) for Germany is published after a time lag of 2 months. Furthermore, there is a waiting period of 6 months until the values are not revised any more. This paper uses monthly...

The overall composite Business Survey Index for the manufacturing sector in Q1 2021 remained under the baseline (100). Moreover, all feeder indices have slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter. Business conditions (92), sales (91), domestic demand (90), ordinary profit (88), and...

The overall composite Business Survey Index for the manufacturing sector in Q4 2020 remained under the baseline (100). However, all feeder indices have slightly increased compared to the previous quarter. Specifically, sales (96), domestic demand (96), and ordinary profit (92) showed...

Many developing economies (Eg: India) is made of several thousands of small-to-medium units and businesses. This is an example of a Multi-pillar economy where each individual pillar represents a small business unit (formal or otherwise). On the contrary western economies are made of many large...

This paper derives series for capital utilisation, labour effort and total factor productivity (TFP) from a general equilibrium model with variable factor utilisation and labour adjustment costs. Impulse responses from the model show that firms initially respond to unanticipated shocks by...

This paper evaluates the impact of the taxation system on factor costs, investment and economic activity. This is performed on the basis of detailed analysis of the Italian tax system and the production of own estimates of the user cost of capital to labour, which capture the contribution of tax...