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Uncertainty about the future path of inflation affects consumption, saving and investment decisions as well as wage … negotiations and price setting of firms. These decisions are based on inflation expectations which are a key determinant of … inflation in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. In this paper we therefore explicitly analyse the relationship between inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011592693
The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence … inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974 - April 2015. To … endogenously control for any potential structural breaks in the inflation time series, Zivot and Andrews (2002) and Clemente …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379937
Inflation and inflation uncertainty are critical factors influencing the functioning of markets and thus the efficient … flow of economic activities. In this study, we investigated the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on growth in … Ghana. Unlike the majority of the previous studies, we distinguished the short-run effects of inflation and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012176383
This paper explores bidirectional linkage between inflation and its uncertainty by observing monthly data of 11 Eastern … European countries. The methodological approach comprises two steps. First, inflation uncertainty series have been created by … choosing an optimal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity- (GARCH) type model. Subsequently, inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890489
framework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal relationships between inflation, growth and their respective … uncertainties using US data. We find that high inflation is detrimental to output growth both directly and indirectly via the … nominal uncertainty. Output growth boosts inflation but mainly indirectly through a reduction in real uncertainty. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008758143
In this study, we examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation … uncertainty in the long-term. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving unconditional … variance component of inflation in the framework of the semiparametric Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). For a cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486628
and Karanasos (2008) to examine the intertemporal relationship between the uncertainties of inflation and output growth in … the US. We find that inflation uncertainty effects output variability positively, while output variability has a negative … effect on inflation uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770689
We analyze the determinants of average individual in ation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of in ation uncertainty that disagreement is an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453118
This paper investigates how inflation and its uncertainty impact GDP growth in eight Central and Eastern European … Countries. Inflation uncertainty series are created examining several GARCH models in combination with three different … distribution functions, while the nonlinear effect of inflation and its uncertainty on GDP growth is assessed in the Bayesian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487908
We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation … expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first … and second moments of inflation expectations separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015069388