This paper extends the benchmark Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) term spread approach to recession forecasting by including the stock market macro liquidity deviation factor. We use a probit framework to predict US business cycles, as defined by the NBER between 1959Q1 and 2011Q4. We find that...

The 'irrational exuberance' in the financial markets has been blamed for the recent subprime crisis and the consequent collapse of the global economy in 2008. This study argues that the relationship between measures of stock market 'macro deepness' and 'macro liquidity' can indicate development...

This study aims to explain that more conservative and supervised but supported banking system can be an advantage during the crises periods. We use the US banking system as the origin of the recent collapse, and the Turkish banking as the more profitable one during the recent crisis years. We...

This study aims to analyze whether banks' deviation from the mainstream in terms of asset and liability allocation enables them to perform better than their competition. Overall, deviation in the liability structure seems to have a significant impact on performance. In a second regression, the...

This study analyses the exchange rate regimes and stabilization programs applied by Turkey in the last two decades.Through these analyses, some important points, widely debated in the literature, are questioned. Three important conclusions, which are consistent with the general consensus in the...

The question of whether banks should diversify or focus in their activities may have different implications for a market where the banking industry is more settled versus a growth market that has not yet fully saturated. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether diversification pays off,...

We have examined macroeconomic transmission mechanism by analyzing the interaction process between macroeconomic forces and financial performance variables of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Turkey employing panel data regression method. Our empirical analysis indicates that the...