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in a Bayesian framework. This consists of a new adaptive importance sampling method for Quantile Estimation via Rapid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377096
This paper presents the R-package MitISEM (mixture of t by importance sampling weighted expectation maximization) which … mixture of Student-t densities is fitted to the target using an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm where each step of the … optimization procedure is weighted using importance sampling. In the second stage this mixture density is a candidate density for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010504035
these proposal densities are used in an independent Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. A particular feature of our approach is … that smoothed estimates of the states and the marginal likelihood are obtained directly as an output of the algorithm. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399681
used in importance sampling for model estimation, model selection and model combination. The procedure is fully automatic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380465
Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064150
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756308
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009722688
simulate model parameters from the Partially Censored Posterior, and PCP-QERMit, an Importance Sampling method that is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057160
A class of adaptive sampling methods is introduced for efficient posterior and predictive simulation. The proposed … between target and mixture is minimized. We label this approach Mixture of t by Importance Sampling and Expectation …, we introduce a permutation-augmented MitISEM approach, for importance sampling from posterior distributions in mixture …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131624
importance sampling or the independence chain Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for posterior analysis. A comparative analysis is … appropriately yet quickly tuned candidate, straightforward importance sampling provides the most efficient estimator of the marginal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377602