Does news about future productivity cause business-cycle fluctuations? What other effects might it have? We explore the answer to this question using semi-structural VARs, where “news” is defined as the innovation in the expectation of TFP at a fixed horizon in the future. We find that...

Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data, and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have significantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors....

Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have significantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors. A...

We study the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) - the first and largest youth training program in the U.S. in operation between 1933 and 1942 - to provide the first comprehensive assessment of the short- and long-term effects of means-tested youth employment programs. We use digitized enrollee...

We study the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) – the first and largest youth training program in the U.S. in operation between 1933 and 1942 – to provide the first comprehensive assessment of the short- and long-term effects of means-tested youth employment programs. We use digitized...