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On time series modeling of Nigeria's external reserves

Doguwa, Sani I.; Alade, Sarah O. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 1-28

autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA …-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) processes. The performances of the proposed models are compared with the … existing model obtained using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process using the pseudo …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473622

Estimating and forecasting the impact of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria using threshold analysis

Okoroafor, David O. K.; Adeniji, Sesan O.; Olasehinde, … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 9 (2018) 1, pp. 1-22

Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Av- erage (ARIMA) and a multivariate time series Vector Autoregressive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922677

Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning

Marcet, Albert; Nicolini, Juan Pablo - 1998

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the last decade. We study a standard monetary model where the fully rational expectations assumption is replaced by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014053167

Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty

Gaiduch, Victor; Hunt, Benjamin F. - 2002

In this paper, measures of the uncertainty surrounding estimates of New Zealand's potential output are used to consider whether the output gap is a useful concept for the monetary authority to base policy actions on. The analysis relies on stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112842

Efficient Simple Policy Rules and the Implications of Potential Output Uncertainty

Hunt, Benjamin F.; Drew, Aaron - 2003

Simple rules for guiding monetary policy actions have been shown to achieve policy objectives effectively. In many of these simple rules, policy prescriptions depend on the economy's level of potential output. However, potential output is unobservable and is estimated with uncertainty. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112608

The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation

Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2016

We explore the ability of traditional core inflation – consumer prices excluding food and energy – to predict headline CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March 2015. Our results indicate that sizable predictability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001948

Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy

Gibbs, Christopher - 2016

This paper introduces the concept of a Forecast Combination Equilibrium to model boundedly rational agents who combine a menu of different forecasts using insights from the forecasting literature to mimic the behavior of actual forecasters. The equilibrium concept is consistent with rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005127

Inflation and the Relative Value of Money

Carr, Douglas - 2017

An alternative formula to the Quantity Theory uses monetary aggregates to measure changes in the value of money which explain virtually all variation of future long-term inflation, enabling significantly more accurate inflation forecasts than consensus with important implications for monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970015

Turkiye Icin Para Bazi Ve Parasal Denetim Model Denemesi (Monetary Base Analysis and Control Model)

Gursel, Haluk Ferden - 2019

Turkish Abstract: Bu metin, bugün dahi gecerli olan ve zaman içerisinde daha da gelistirilmis bulunan, örneğin halen Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) tarafından kullanılan, para bazı analizi ve parasal kontrol modeli üzerine yapilmis ilk araştırmalardandır.Çalısmada para bazı...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891834

A Monetary Base Analysis and Control Model

Gursel, Haluk Ferden - 2019

This report is one of the first studies discussing monetary base analysis and control model, a concept even today is alive and more developed by, for example, by IMF to use its analysis. The study presents monetary base approach to control of money flows and the links between monetary base,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892419