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Monotone methods for equilibrium selection under perfect foresight dynamics

Oyama, Daisuke; Takahashi, Satoru; Hofbauer, Josef - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 3 (2008) 2, pp. 155-192

This paper studies a dynamic adjustment process in a large society of forward-looking agents where payoffs are given by a normal form supermodular game. The stationary states of the dynamics correspond to the Nash equilibria of the stage game. It is shown that if the stage game has a monotone...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011700407

Monotone Methods for Equilibrium Selection under Perfect Foresight Dynamics

Oyama, Daisuke; Takahashi, Satoru; Hofbauer, Josef - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014063048

Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information

Bergemann, Dirk; Morris, Stephen - 2011

We analyze games of incomplete information and offer equilibrium predictions which are valid for, and in this sense robust to, all possible private information structures that the agents may have. We completely characterize the set of Bayes correlated equilibria in a class of games with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175012

Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information

Bergemann, Dirk; Morris, Stephen - 2011

We analyze games of incomplete information and offer equilibrium predictions which are valid for all possible private information structures that the agents may have. Our characterization of these robust predictions relies on an epistemic result which establishes a relationship between the set...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014177259

Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information

Bergemann, Dirk - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099192

Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information

Bergemann, Dirk - 2013

We analyze games of incomplete information and offer equilibrium predictions which are valid for, and in this sense robust to, all possible private information structures that the agents may have. The set of outcomes that can arise in equilibrium for some information structure is equal to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084975

Grand Canonical Minority Game as a Sign Predictor

Wawrzyniak, Karol - 2014

In this paper the extended model of Minority game (MG), incorporating variable number of agents and therefore called Grand Canonical, is used for prediction. We proved that the best MG-based predictor is constituted by a tremendously degenerated system, when only one agent is involved. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059395

Forecast Dispersion in Finite-Player Forecasting Games

Kim, Jin Yeub - 2017

We study forecast dispersion in a finite-player forecasting game modeled as an aggregate game with payoff externalities … forecast from the average forecast; and with a finite number of agents, the agents can strategically in influence that average … find that when each agent prefers to be close to the average forecast, the presence of strategic manipulation of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972639

What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?

Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019

the next draw as a forecast. We find that most of the forecasters report point predictions that are close to one of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998

Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions

Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019

Survey questions that elicit point predictions regarding uncertain events face an important challenge as human forecasters use various statistics to summarise their subjective expectations. In this paper, we take up the challenge and study whether alternative formulations of the questions used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999