This paper describes a method for calculating daily real-time estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other...

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the...

This paper addresses whether macro news arrivals affect currency markets over time. The null from macro exchange-rate theory is that they do not: macro news is impounded in ex-change rates instantaneously. We test this by examining the effects of news on subsequent trades by end-user...

We address the exchange rate determination puzzle by examining how information is aggregated in a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) setting. Unlike other DGE macro models, which enrich either preference structures or production structures, our model enriches the information structure. The model...

In a market with symmetric information about fundamentals, can information-based trade still arise? Consider bond and FX markets, where private information about nominal cash flows is generally absent, but participants are convinced that superior information exists. We analyze a class of...

This paper presents a new numerical method for solving stochastic general equilibrium models with dynamic portfolio choice over many financial assets. The method can be applied to models where there are heterogeneous agents, time-varying investment opportunity sets, and incomplete asset markets....

We study the efficacy of sterilized foreign exchange intervention in a model where exchange rates are pushed away from their fundamental level by a rational bubble. The bubble is sustained by uncertainty about the post-crash price and about the market absorption capacity. We show that the bubble...

This paper provides a new analysis of index-linked debt in the U.K.. I begin by clarifying the theoretical links between the observed prices of conventional and index-linked debt, and the term structure of real interest rates. Based on this analysis, I then describe a new empirical methodology...