attain local stationarity and bounded mean values. The model is applied to the analysis of inflation dynamics. Allowing for …

This study investigates asymmetry in the impact of domestic inflation drivers in the Baltic States, focusing on the … affect the inflation rate by employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach (NARDL) and the Phillips curve …. Empirical results demonstrate the long-run asymmetry as inflation in Estonia and Lithuania responds more significantly to …

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …

We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from … 1970:1-2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their … conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for persistence to depend on the size and sign of shocks to inflation as well as …

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates … inflation volatility. By pooling insights from diverse modeling frameworks, this study provides a robust and effective strategy … for improving inflation forecasts across different horizons. …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …