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We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. In particular, we … parsimonious way. We find that financial market data nowcasts Finnish GDP growth relatively well: nowcasting performance is similar … assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013286502
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we … assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS … models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth using monthly or daily data without temporal aggregation in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214415
This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators … is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR models in both individual and pooled setups for … nowcasting. While the primary focus is on nowcasting, we also assess the performance of the indicators for backcasting and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015207182
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490440
taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides … usually yield different results and the official GDP release is somewhere in between. We make use of this statistical … procedure by separately modeling the two sides of GDP in a system of bridge equations at the most disaggregate level available …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715
well as cheques that clear through the banking system, as potential indicators of current GDP growth. These variables … macroeconomic forecasting. Controlling for the release dates of each of a set of indicators, we generated nowcasts of GDP growth for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664042
, labour, expectations, transport, financial data. We address the problem of Nowcasting of the growth rate of Slovak real GDP …The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We … utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015418703
This paper develops methods and a framework of financial market theory. We model financial markets as a system of agents which perform market transactions with other agents under the action of numerous expectations. Agents’ expectations are formed of economic and financial variables, market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012150388
crises have persistent effects on GDP. We find the present value of output losses to be around 84 percent. A reduction in the … GDP. Based on Danish data and using models for the Danish economy, we thus confirm findings in studies for other economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011778734
I present evidence of systematically heterogeneous expectations, a violation of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. I demonstrate that the expectations of different gender and wealth cohorts have different relative abilities to predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, income, stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076284