Policymakers combine many different policy tools to achieve emission reductions. However, there remains substantial uncertainty around which mixes of policies are effective. This uncertainty stems from the predominant focus of ex post policy evaluation on isolating effects of single, known...

Using newly constructed sector-specific carbon price data, we study the response of CO2 emissions to carbon pricing policies for a cross-country panel covering 1990–2016. We explicitly estimate the distinct effects of policy introduction (regardless of the price level) and effects attributable...

Economies, societies, and many natural systems evolve and change, sometimes dramatically, so good models and accurate forecasts are vital for policymakers to prepare for and navigate these changes successfully. Yet history is littered with forecasts that went badly wrong, sharply illustrated...

We study the impacts of carbon pricing on CO2 emissions across five sectors for a panel of 39 countries covering 1990-2016. Constructing new sector-level carbon price data, we implement a novel approach to estimate the changes in CO2 emissions associated with (i) the introduction of carbon...

Mineral and material commodities are essential inputs to economic production, but there have been periodical concerns about mineral scarcity. However, there has been no systematic recent study that has determined whether mineral commodities have become scarcer over the longer run. Here we...

Quantifying the uncertainty around structural breaks is crucial to attribute breaks to potential causes. Step-Indicator saturation (SIS, see Castle et al 2015) allows for the detection of structural breaks using model selection, however, little is known about the uncertainty around the timing of...