over-the-counter option data and analyses its impact on exports. First, risk-neutral option-implied probability density … functions are estimated and corrected for risk aversion. Second, the standard deviations of the densities are purged from … uncertainty spillovers from the Eurozone. The resulting time series serves as a forwardlooking measure of exchange rate …

evaluates the performance of the models. The probit model with the industrial production index and the realized volatility as …