We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...

This paper investigates the impact of a variety of corporate governance mechanisms on the performance of banks listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), by utilising data collected for 52 banking institutions for the period 2012 to 2017. Exhaustive results derived from multi-model applications...

The manipulation of the LIBOR by a group of banks became one of the major blows to the remaining confidence in the finance industry (e.g. Department of Justice, 2012). Yet, despite an enormous amount of popular literature on the subject, rigorous time-series studies are few. In my paper, I...

The objective of this research is to develop a structural form probability of default model for small and medium-sized enterprises, dealing with the methodological issues which arise in the modelling of small commercial loan portfolios, and to test the applicability of the model in practice....

We develop an empirically-based simulation study to test policies designed to control systemic risk. We consider preventive policies targeting capital requirements and mitigation policies targeting default resolution. We find that capital buffers reduce both defaults and losses. The loss...

This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of credit default swap (CDS) spreads from a sample of 45 listed European banks over the 2004-2010 period. We use variables related to accounting- and market-based data, an indicator of liquidity in the CDS market and several variables from the...