We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is...

We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms...

Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and document a strong negative relationship....

Does interaction between firms lead to a streamlining of expectations? We test for the existence of a so-far ignored channel of expectation formation and diffusion by matching a regular Austrian business survey on firm expectations with the schedule and confirmed exhibitors at trade fairs. We...

This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in household beliefs have quantitatively large effects on macroeconomic aggregates. The departures are formalized using model-consistent notions of pessimism and optimism and are...

Speculation, in the spirit of Harrison and Kreps [1978], is introduced into a standard real business cycle model. Investors (speculators) hold heterogeneous beliefs about firm growth. Firm ownership, and thus, the firm's discount factor varies with waves of optimism and leverage. These waves...

This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations, and shows that biases in household beliefs have quantitatively large effects on macroeconomic aggregates. The departures are formalized using model-consistent notions of pessimism and optimism and are...

Speculation, in the spirit of Harrison and Kreps [1978], is introduced into a standard real business cycle model. Investors (speculators) hold heterogeneous beliefs about firm growth. Firm ownership, and thus, the firm's discount factor varies with waves of optimism and leverage. These waves...

This paper develops a complete-market production economy with heterogeneous beliefs about TFP growth. Hiring occurs before TFP is known and is, therefore, risky (operational leverage). The firm's discount factor depends on a wealth-weighted average of investors' beliefs. Waves of optimism...

We introduce a summary indicator based on the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying indexes-financial health, labour market and consumer spending-that capture...