This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada's debt without increasing the debt's risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus...

We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond. A pseudo-trading strategy based on relative value generates higher...

This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary...

This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada's debt without increasing the debt's risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus...

We find strong evidence of a funding risk premium in the cross-section of asset returns. Our estimate for the price of funding risk is robust across Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, equities, and hedge funds. Funding shocks pose a risk to investors because they exacerbate the illiquidity and...

Interest rate forecasting remains vexing because of the lower bound. A few tractable models are available, but they offer limited or restrictive volatility dynamics. In response, we build on the popular dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach to greatly expand the space of term-structure models that are...

Central counterparties (CCPs) are becoming central to over-the-counter (OTC) markets. A CCP limits counterparty risk but raises entry barriers. We analyze the trade-off between dealers' equilibrium default risk and competition in an OTC market with imperfect competition and endogenous default...

Standard Gaussian macro-finance term structure models impose the Markov property: the conditional mean is a function of the risk factors. We relax this assumption parsimoniously, and consider models where yields are linear in the conditional mean (but not in the risk factors). To illustrate, if...

We build a small-scale representation of an economy in which the short rate, inflation and output exhibit unobserved secular and cyclical components that both drive bond yields. We impose the economic restriction that expected bond returns are purely cyclical so that their variance does not...

Using granular data about government bonds, we find that dealer networks undergo significant changes after the arrival of new public information. Following the release of macroeconomic data, dealer intermediation increases, the dealers' inventory changes and more bonds circulate through the...