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We introduce a methodology for measuring default risk connectedness that is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. The out-of-sample nature of the procedure leads to "realized" measures which, in practice, respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503874
Using a comprehensive dataset from German banks, we document the usage of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2008-2013. Banks used the sovereign CDS market to extend, rather than hedge, their long exposures to sovereign risk during this period....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011888333
We introduce a method for measuring default risk connectedness of euro zone sovereign states using credit default swap (CDS) and bond data. The connectedness measure is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. Due to its predictive nature, it can respond more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958223
This study provides a dynamic analysis of the lead-lag relationship between sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond spreads of the highly indebted southern European countries, considering an extensive time sample from the period before the global financial crisis to the latest developments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012175748
möglicherweise problematischen Strukturbruch zurückzugreifen. Als Haupteffekte werden Kreditrisiko und flight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009771035
This work presents an original proposal for the reform of the Eurozone architecture according to an approach based on … new ESM would support the full transition from national debts to a single Eurozone public debt (e.g. Eurobonds) with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011873820
Previous work has documented a greater sensitivity of long-term government bond yields to fundamentals in Euro area stress countries during the euro crisis, but we know little about the driver(s) of regime-switches. Our estimates based on a panel smooth threshold regression model quantify and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011974869
We study the variation of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) of eurozone countries, their persistence and co … model, we test the evidence of long memory for CDSs of ten eurozone countries. Our analysis reveals that price discovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014158964
This paper develops an arbitrage-free affine term structure model of potentially defaultable sovereign bonds to model a cross-section of eight euro area government bond yield curves since January 1999. The existence of a common monetary policy under European Monetary Union determines the short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067296
This paper addresses the following questions. Is there evidence of financial contagion in the Eurozone? To what extent … matter concerning the Euro Zone. Second, differences in vulnerability to contagion within the Eurozone are even more … remarkable: the core Eurozone members become less vulnerable to EUZ contagion, possibly due to a safe-heaven effect, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011731038