Test direct, spillover and aggregate effects of hot spots policing on crime in a high crime environment. Methods: We identified 967 hot spot street segments and randomly assigned 384 to a six-months increase in police patrols. To account for the complications resulting from a large experimental...

As in many cities, gangs in Medellín provide order and collect 'taxes'. Why do gangs govern civilians? Some argue that criminal and state rule are substitutes. Hence, increasing state presence should crowd out gangs. But they could also be complements. States produce growth and general demand...

We study the effects of broken windows policing on crime using geo-located crime and arrest reports for 80 Colombian cities. Broadly defined, broken windows policing consists of intensifying arrests - sometimes for minor offenses - to deter potential criminals. To estimate causal effects, we...

Spanish Abstract: En este artículo estimo el efecto causal de las condiciones de reclusión sobre la reincidencia explotando la entrada en operación de nuevos centros de reclusión en Colombia. Entre marzo de 2010 y enero de 2013 entraron en funcionamiento diez nuevos centros de reclusión...

Spanish Abstract: Colombia concentra grandes esfuerzos fiscales a la persecución del delito de porte, fabricación y tráfico de estupefacientes. Estos costos no son siempre visibles, en tanto corresponden al costo de oportunidad de una gran cantidad de funcionarios que intervienen en el ciclo...

We study persistence in criminal capital by looking at the effects of inmates’ releases on crime around prisons in Colombia. Leveraging detailed geographic and temporal information on the universe of releases from all prisons and crime reports, we find that property crimes are 16% higher...

This technical note examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime and law enforcement dynamics in Colombia. The analysis uses administrative data on police reports and arrests for different types of offenses. It applies a “difference-in-differences” model, comparing the number of...

In 2016 the city of Bogotá doubled police patrols and intensified city services on high-crime streets. They did so based on a policy and criminological consensus that such place-based programs not only decrease crime, but also have positive spillovers to nearby streets. To test this, we worked...

Medellin's government wanted to raise its efficacy, legitimacy, and control. The city identified 80 neighborhoods with weak state presence and competing armed actors. In half, they increased non-police street presence tenfold for two years, offering social services and dispute resolution. In...

Gangs govern millions worldwide. Why rule? And how do they respond to states? Many argue that criminal rule provides protection when states do not, and that increasing state services could crowd gangs out. We began by interviewing leaders from 30 criminal groups in Medellin. The conventional...