We assess the long-term financial returns from high-quality collectible real assets, and review the unique risks that are associated with such investments. Over the period 1900-2012, art, stamps, and musical instruments (violins) have appreciated at an average annual rate of 6.4%-6.9% in nominal...

We construct a neural network algorithm that generates price predictions for art at auction, relying on both visual and non-visual object characteristics. We find that higher automated valuations relative to auction house pre-sale estimates are associated with substantially higher...

This paper gives an overview of the shortcomings of the most frequently used statistical techniques in failure prediction modeling. The statistical procedures that underpin the selection of variables and the determination of coefficients often lead to ‘overfitting'. It is also seen that the...

Using unique household survey data from Ecuador, we study how an increase in poor households' income affects their probability of borrowing from local loan sharks ("chulqueros"). We exploit a natural experiment created by a government cash transfer program for which only households with a...

We model mortgage refinancing as a bargaining game involving the borrowing household, the incumbent lender, and an outside bank. In equilibrium, the borrower's ability to refinance depends both on the competitiveness of the local banking market and on the cost of switching banks. We find...

This paper examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999-2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Between 1999 and 2010, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%,...