In the paper we investigate, which shocks drive inflation in small open economies. We proceed in two steps. First, we use the SVAR approach to identify the global shocks. In the second step we regress the disaggregated price indices for selected European economies - the Czech Republic, Poland...

In this paper, we analyse the sources of time variation in consumer inflation across ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and five sectors (durables, semidurables, non-durables, food, and services) in the period 2001-2013. With a multi-level factor model we decompose product-level...

The outbreak of the global financial crisis triggered changes in thinking about the way monetary policy is conducted, in particular about the desired central banks' reaction function. However, a change in thinking does not necessarily mean that central banks really implemented these...

For the last two years inflation has been systematically falling across countries in the European Union and lately it exhibits rising deflationary pressures. Recent studies suggest that apart from global determinants influencing broad inflation measures, e.g. plummeting commodity prices, core...

Inflation perceived by consumers may differ from official statistics particularly due to different baskets of goods and services lay people and statisticians consider and by consumer loss aversion to price increases. Such effects, as suggested by the Prospect Theory, are confirmed in many...

This paper examines to what extent public information provided by the central bank affects the forecasts formulated by professional forecasters. We investigate empirically whether disclosing GDP and inflation forecasts by Narodowy Bank Polski (the central bank of Poland) reduces the disagreement...

We estimate forward-looking Taylor rules on data from macroeconomic forecasts of three central banks (Bank of England, National Bank of Poland and Swiss National Bank) in order to determine the extent to which these banks are forward looking in their monetary policy decisions. We find that all...

We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach and Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the the natural yield curve (NYC) - the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt...

This paper provides the analysis of individual reactions functions of Polish Monetary Policy Council members in the years 2004-2005. In the period under study the Polish central bank used the bias in the monetary policy as an indicator of future interest rate movements and a change of bias...