In recent times DSGE models came more and more into the focus of forecasters and showed promising forecast performances for the short term. We contribute to the existing literature by analyzing the forecast power of a DSGE model including endogenous growth for the medium run. Instead of only...

This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of financial market data in comparison to other indicator groups to forecast industrial production for Germany and the US. We focus on single-indicator models and various weighting schemes and evaluate the forecasting performance using a...

This paper investigates the effects of public investment in infrastructure on private output for Germany. Using a multivariate framework we explore the impact of a diverging selection of variables on the ensuing estimates and document confidence intervals computed following the bootstrap...

Die internationale Konjunktur hat sich in der zweiten Hälfte des Jahres 2008 unerwartet kräftig abgeschwächt. Dem konnte sich auch die Wirtschaft Nordrhein-Westfalens nicht entziehen. Im Jahresdurchschnitt dürfte das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt hierzulande nur noch um 1,5% nach 2,6% im Jahr...