We examine the predictive effect of sentiment on the cross-section of stock returns across different economic states. The degree of mispricing and the subsequent price correction can be different between economic expansion and recession because of the limits of arbitrage and short sale...

Using the monthly data for more than 1700 Australian stocks over the period from 1990 to 2009, we investigate whether industry portfolio returns predict the aggregate market. We find that a few industries significantly lead the market even controlling for well-recognized market predictors....

Using the monthly data for more than 1700 Australian stocks over the period from 1990 to 2009, we investigate whether industry portfolio returns predict the aggregate market. We find that a few industries significantly lead the market even controlling for well-recognized market predictors....

To capture the well documented time series momentum and reversal in asset price, we develop a continuous-time asset price model, derive the optimal investment strategy theoretically, and test the strategy empirically. We show that, by combining market fundamentals and timing opportunity with...

Hou and Moskowitz (2005) use the stock price delay in reflecting market-wide information to measure market frictions each individual firm faces. In this study, to better understand how the price formation process is affected by the business cycle, we examine the relation between changes in the...

If the firm chooses the stock of capital, labor, cash (distributions) so as to maximize its expected discounted present value, its investment policy should adjust endogenously to changes in investor preferences. It is hypothesized that quantitative easing (QE) affects asset prices through a...

The paper explores whether the co-movement of market returns and equity fund flows can be explained by a common response to macroeconomic news. I find that variables that predict the real economy as well as the equity premium are related to mutual fund flows. Changes in dividend-price ratio...

We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...

I develop a macroeconomic model of information production in financial markets during asset price booms and busts. Agents acquire information to decide which firms to fund. In the aggregate, more precise information leads to less capital misallocation. The source of booms and busts determines...