The thesis deals with structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting of key macroeconomic variables (real growth of GDP, inflation, exchange rate, and policy interest rate). The central part of the thesis (Chapters 2-4) consists of three chapters. Chapter 2 considers the structural DSGE...

In this paper we analyze the determinants of export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001-2014; 101 countries) and using different estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform...

Two model averaging approaches are used and compared in estimating and forecasting dynamic factor models, the well-known BMA and the recently developed WALS. Both methods propose to combine frequentist estimators using Bayesian weights. We apply our framework to the Armenian economy using...

We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of twelve old and six new member countries of the European Union (EU) that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis, we...