■ This study shows that, as an oil-importing economy, rising oil prices serve to diminish Korea’s household purchasing power and escalate production costs. The level to which economic entities are affected varies greatly depending on the degree of cost shifting. ■ According to the analysis...

■ The disinflation in recent years has been significantly influenced by the changes in external conditions and sagging domestic aggregate demand. For 2017, inflation is projected to remain at a low level. ○ An empirical analysis found that fluctuations in consumer prices are significantly...

Korean Abstract:■ 최근의 물가상승률 하락은 국내 총수요의 부진과 함께 대외 여건 변화에도 상당 부분 영향을 받은 것으로 추정되는 한편, 내년에도 소비자물가는 낮은 상승세를 지속할 전망 ○ 실증분석 결과, 소비자물가의...

The main purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the time-varying relative importance of the permanent and the transitory shocks to the U.S. real GDP. After accounting for the cointegration relation between real GDP, consumption, and investment, we find that i) the real permanent shock played a...

The objective of this paper is to suggest a new predictive system for international trade, based on an unobserved component model. We employ the predictive system developed by Pastor and Stambaugh (2009), which is unlike other conventional predictive regression models. This paper derives an...