Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in...

This study derives structural implications of the Dutch disease in oil-exporting countries due to permanent oil price shocks from a typical model. We then test these implications in manufacturing sector data across a wide group of countries including oil-exporters covering 1977 to 2004. The...

We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between...

Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil’s time-varying neutral rate based on a range of...

This paper examines how ratings for emerging market economies have been set. Given the high degree of autocorrelation in ratings, we use estimators that yield consistent parameters in the presence of such correlation. The results show that rating changes for emerging market economies have been...

Trust miscalibration issues, represented by undertrust and overtrust, hinder the interaction between drivers and self-driving vehicles. A modern challenge for automotive engineers is to avoid these trust miscalibration issues through the development of techniques for measuring drivers' trust in...

Automated driving systems (ADSs) allow vehicles to engage in self-driving under specific conditions. Along with the potential safety benefits, the increase in productivity through non-driving-related tasks (NDRTs) is often cited as a motivation behind the adoption of ADSs. Although advances have...

Automated vehicles (AVs) that intelligently interact with drivers must build a trustworthy relationship with them. A calibrated level of trust is fundamental for the AV and the driver to collaborate as a team. Techniques that allow AVs to perceive drivers’ trust from drivers’ behaviors and...

How do countries enhance their exports of goods in a largely tariff-free environment? Our investigation of export performance of new member states in the European Union single market, which provides a natural control for barrier-free environment, points to the importance of structural reforms,...