This paper describes the set of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models that are being used at Banco de España to project GDP growth rates and to simulate macrofinancial risk scenarios for Brazil and Mexico. The toolkit consists of large benchmark models to produce baseline projections and...

RationaleEach year, the Banco de España identifies a list of third countries (i.e. those outside the European Economic Area) to which Spanish credit institutions have relevant exposures. To that end, it is important to analyse the Spanish economy’s exposure to these material third countries...

This paper describes the set of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models that Banco de España uses to project GDP growth rates and to simulate macrofinancial risk scenarios for Brazil and Mexico. The toolkit consists of large benchmark models to produce baseline projections and various...

Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve System in the US are widely recognised to have spillover effects on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric effects of US monetary policy shocks on macro-financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). We shed...

This thesis aims to assess the predictions of standard neoclassical Real Business Cycle models for Spain and the United Kingdom by comparing statistical moments that describe real business cycles and the empirical moments. For this, I present the neoclassical theory of business cycles and its...

This paper investigates the role that two key methodological choices play in the construction of textual indicators: the selection of local versus foreign newspapers and the breadth of the press coverage (i.e. the number of newspapers considered). The large literature in this field is almost...

Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve System in the US are widely recognised to have spillover effects on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric effects of US monetary policy shocks on macro-financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). We shed...