Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters' narratives for German business cycle forecasts. The paper applies textual analysis to convert qualitative text data into...

We study whether social media can contribute to hatred against minorities with a focus on Donald Trump's political rise. To establish causality, we construct an instrument for Twitter usage based on the platform's early adopters at the South by Southwest (SXSW) festival in 2007, who were crucial...

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for116 countries starting in 1940. Theory predicts that the sectoral allocation of credit matters for distinguishing between...

We study the effects of online content moderation on user behavior in the context of a prominent case study: the deletion of President Donald Trump's Twitter account on January 8th, 2021. We provide four key findings. First, the toxicity of tweets sent by Trump followers relative to a...

Müller (2023) presents evidence for electoral cycles in macroprudential policy in a sample of 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Consistent with theoretical arguments, the pattern of looser regulation is larger when election outcomes are uncertain and institutions are weak. In this...