We provide new evidence on the spillover effects from US interest rate changes, focusing on factors that are pertinent to the current conjuncture: weak recovery prospects in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and the confluence of macroeconomic shocks shaping the path of interest...

What does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes This paper estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically...

We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalizeinternational capital flows-financial globalization. Both country- and industry-level resultssuggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing tosignificant increases...

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines...

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity - nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices - for a sample...

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines...

While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results...

Are Temporary Trade Barriers (TTBs) introduced for strategic reasons? To answer this question, we construct a novel sectoral measure of retaliation using daily bilateral data on TTB responses in 1220 subsectors across a panel of 25 advanced and emerging market economies over 1989-2019. Stylized...

The aim of this SDN is to examine whether fear of a political cost associated with economic reforms is justified by the available evidence, and whether there are lessons from how economic policies might be adjusted to mitigate any political cost. The paper will be based on a new comprehensive...