This paper presents a natural generalization of the von Neumann and Morgenstern axioms to a space of random samples. The representation allows for preferences that exhibit ambiguity (or uncertainty) aversion in a way that is analogous to risk aversion. The recursive representation also satisfies...

This paper presents five empirical tests of the popular modeling abstraction that assumes bids from online auctions with proxy bidding can be analyzed “as if” they were bids from a second price sealed-bid auction. The tests rely on observations of the magnitudes and timings of the top two...

The paper presents a framework for estimating a demand system from price data generated by a large scale auction platform such as eBay. Auction prices are used to identify characteristics of the joint distribution using an order statistics like approach where the bidder's "revealed preference"...

This paper considers a restriction to non-negative matrix factorization in which at least one matrix factor is stochastic. That is, the elements of the matrix factors are non-negative and the columns of one matrix factor sum to 1. This restriction includes topic models, a popular method for...

This paper analyses a detailed data set on drugs in human clinical trials around the world between 1989 and 2002. The data provides information on the probabilities with which drugs successfully complete the different phases of the trials and the durations of successful completions. The paper...

This paper shows that polynomial sieve estimators can predict arbitrary continuous functions on closed and bounded subsets of the reals. These predictions can be arbitrarily close irrespective of whether the sieve is estimated on the full domain or a strict and non-dense subset of the domain....

This paper considers the Generalized Synthetic Control method of Xu (2015). It presents a characterization of the identified set for this model. In addition it presents a version in which the matrix factorization is unique without strong restrictions on the matrix factors. The approach assumes a...

The paper presents exclusion restrictions that allow identification of returns to schooling using data from the National Survey of Young Men (1966) (NLSYM66). The approach does not use instrumental variables (IV) or control function approaches. Instead, a non-parametric finite mixture model is...

This paper considers the problem of estimating treatment effects when there is a large number of potential control units. The paper introduces to the economics literature the idea of polytope volume minimization as a method of estimating a factor model when observed outcomes are assumed to be a...

The decision maker is assumed to observe a large number of experiments. The paper presents conditions for the existence of a unique prior over distributions that generate each of the observed samples. The axioms over experiments admit a recursive non-expected utility representation over...