We combine structural estimation with ideas from Machine Learning to estimate a model with information-based voluntary social distancing and state lockdowns to analyze the factors driving the effect of social distancing in mitigating COVID-19. The model allows us to estimate how contagious...

This study investigates the effects of social distancing measures on various types of social mobility, using country- and day-fixed effects on a panel of daily data comprising 29 European countries. Although social distancing measures proved to be significant for all types of mobility in the...

We investigate the effect of standardized mathematics scores for young adults on the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. We find that a one grade level increase in test scores led to a decrease in COVID-19 cases 30, 60, and 90 days after the first case in each county. Our findings...

We use anonymized and aggregated data from Facebook to show that areas with stronger social ties to two early COVID-19 “hotspots” (Westchester County, NY, in the U.S. and Lodi province in Italy) generally have more confirmed COVID-19 cases as of March 30, 2020. These relationships hold after...

The increasing uncertainties about the evolving pattern of the novel COVID-19 virus in the absence of a vaccine and the dampening economic effects associated with the containment measures, which have triggered a sharp fall in global commodity prices have raised concerns among policymakers in the...

This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity in the U.S. up to the introduction of vaccines in early 2021. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector...

This paper modifies the basic SEIR model to incorporate demand for health care. The model is used to study the relative effectiveness of policy interventions that include social distancing, quarantine, contact tracing, and random testing. A version of the model that is calibrated to the Ferguson...