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risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one … uncertainty with risk and return of stock trading. In terms of methodology, we show the effect that using an encompassing prior … better results in terms of profit per capital engagement and risk than using a standard linear normalization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056713
This paper investigates the predictive ability of international volatility risk for the daily aggregate Chinese stock … international volatility risk proxies. We find that international volatility risks are negatively associated with contemporaneous … risk (DVIX) is particularly powerful in forecasting Chinese daytime stock returns, and plays a dominant role relative to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972144
There is a generalized conviction that variation in dividend yields is exclusively related to expected returns and not to expected dividend growth - e.g. Cochrane's presidential address (Cochrane (2011)). We show that this pattern, although valid for the aggregate stock market, is not true for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036406
This paper investigates the predictability of asset prices among developed and emerging markets. Weekly and monthly stock market indices from developed and emerging market economies are analysed to check the validity of weak-form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) using various empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101494
This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and commodity prices and whether this can be used to forecast stock returns. As both prices are linked to expected future economic performance they should exhibit a long-run relationship. Moreover, changes in sentiment towards commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050821
Using well-known GARCH models for density prediction of daily S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between the qualities of the forecasts of the whole density, whereas the Bayesian approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976219
making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003965868
making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094817
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013022195
The relationship between risk and expected returns has been investigated extensively in the financial economics … with time-varying asymmetry, linked to the upside and downside uncertainty, the risk-return puzzle is investigated across … skewness on the total price of risk. That is, in the absence of skewness the relationship between risk and return is positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921313