Breakthroughs and backlashes have marked progress in the development and diffusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI). These shocks make the investment in developing an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) subject to considerable uncertainty. This paper applies a real options model, extended to...

Rapid technological progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has been predicted to lead to mass unemployment, rising inequality, and higher productivity growth through automation. In this paper we critically re-assess these predictions by (i) surveying the recent literature and (ii)...

Breakthroughs and backlashes have marked progress in the development and diffusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI). These shocks make the investment in developing an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) subject to considerable uncertainty. This paper applies a real options model, extended to...

In "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018b) combine the task-based model of the labor market with an endogenous growth model to model the economic consequences of artificial intelligence (AI). This...

Economists' two main theoretical approaches to understanding Artificial Intelligence (AI) impacts have been the task-approach to labor markets and endogenous growth theory. Therefore, the recent integration of the task-approach into an endogenous growth model by Acemoglu and Restrepo (AR) is a...

In "new" new international trade theory, whether firms export or not are determined by their productivity. These models assume that firms enter a market to find their productivity levels revealed to them as in a lottery. In this paper we propose an alternative way to model whether firms export...

We refine modelling of the radical innovation decision in this paper by extending real option theory to include non-marginal stochastic jump processes. From the model analytics we determine that the average magnitude and frequency of non-marginal stochastic jump processes are the most important...

We provide a formal model of entrepreneurship in human development. The framework is provided by the capabilities approach (CA). Hence we extend not only the conceptualisation of entrepreneurship in development, but the reach of the CA into entrepreneurship. From a CA view, entrepreneurship is...

Building on a Lewis-type model of structural change and entrepreneurship we show how a global economic crisis consisting of a financial and a trade shock can undermine structural change in developing countries via the start-up and innovation activities of entrepreneurs. The model analytics...