Modern consumer theories are built upon the premise of the forward looking behavior of households. While most of the empirical studies at micro level are based on Euler equation, there have been few to estimate the household consumption function and test the implication of forward looking...

We identify the cyclical turning points of 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (i) Cyclical phase shifts are highly concentrated around the aggregate turning points; (ii) In contrast to the conventional notion of a ‘sudden stop and slow recovery,’ troughs...

Korea’s domestic economy is gradually improving as a result of positive export performance, which began earlier this year, but the momentum for recovery is still weak. While investment is showing signs of recovery, private consumption remains sluggish. The global economy is expected to show...