In this paper we use bootstrap approach to test the null hypothesis thatall forecasters in the U.S. Surveys of Professional Forecasters (SPF) have equalability. Our bootstrap procedure captures any potential cross-sectional andserial correlation in the forecast errors while preserving the...

This paper considers bootstrap inference in model averaging for predictive regressions. We firstshow that a naïve bootstrap approach, which consists of stacking all residuals at time t into a vector, and then resampling these cross-sectional vectors of residuals over time is invalid in the...

Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles recognises the important role the transportation sector plays in business cycle propagation and develops indicators for this sector to identify its current state, and predict its future. The reference cycle is defined, including business and growth...