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strong evidence that theTrump election has increased the level/trend and lowered the volatility of S&P 500 index inboth ex …
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We employ a time-varying parameter VAR to examine the dynamic effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment during different recessions. We find that the impact of uncertainty shocks during the Great Recession is significantly larger compared to previous recessions. Empirical studies should...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894364
We consider the effects of uncertainty shocks in a nonlinear VAR that allows uncertainty to have amplification effects. When uncertainty is relatively low, fluctuations in uncertainty have small, linear effects. In periods of high uncertainty, the effect of a further increase in uncertainty is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897315
The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks on U.S. macroeconomic activity are examined using a smooth transition VAR model in which the dynamic relationship between the variables changes with the level of economic policy uncertainty. We find that the responses of the variables change with the...
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uncertainty is proxied by the (unobserved) volatility of the structural shocks, and a regime change occurs whenever credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472852
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial … component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross …-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276