Understanding behavioral aspects of collective decision-making is an important challenge for eco-nomics, and narratives are a crucial group-based mechanism that influences human decision-making. This paper introduces the Character-Role Narrative Framework as a tool to systematically analyze...

Understanding behavioral aspects of collective decision-making is an important challenge for eco-nomics, and narratives are a crucial group-based mechanism that influences human decision-making. This paper introduces the Character-Role Narrative Framework as a tool to systematically analyze...

In this paper the out-of-sample prediction of Value-at-Risk by means of models accounting for higher moment dynamics is studied. We consider models differing in terms of skewness and urtosis and, in particular, the GARCHDSK model, which allows for dynamic skewness and kurtosis. The issue of VaR...

When forecasting aggregated time series, several options are available. For example, the multivariate series or the individual time series might be predicted and then aggregated, or one may choose to forecast the aggregated series directly. While in theory an optimal disaggregated forecast will...

Cover -- Occhiello -- Indice -- Premessa -- Cap. 1 - Introduzione -- Cap. 2 - Modello di regressione lineare semplice -- Cap. 3 - Analisi dei residui -- Cap. 4 - Modello di regressione lineare multipla -- Cap. 5 - Alcuni esempi notevoli -- Cap. 6 - Punti leva, anomali, influenti -- Cap. 7 -...

The spread of propaganda, misinformation, and biased narratives from autocratic regimes, especially on social media, is a growing concern in many democracies. Can censorship be an effective tool to curb the spread of such slanted narratives? In this paper, we study the European Union's ban on...

Does economic freedom increase the utility of an average citizen? Public choice theory in particular has emphasized the shortcomings of governments and voting processes, and the advantages of relying on markets and individual decision making. However, an increasing amount of people are refusing...