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In this paper we present an overview of theoretical and empirical contributions exploring the inter-linkages between financial factors and real economic activity. We first revisit the main theoretical approaches that allow financial frictions to be embedded into general equilibrium models, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024293
This paper examines the role of bank credit in modeling and forecasting business cycle fluctuations, and investigates the international transmission of US credit shocks, using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) framework and associated country-specific error correction models. The paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009668401
This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of lowfrequency macroeconomic variables that are representative of the U.S. economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low-frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allows us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476374
This paper contributes to a better understanding of the important role that credit demand plays for credit markets and aggregate macroeconomic developments as both a source and transmitter of economic shocks. I am the first to identify a structural credit demand equation together with credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014448367
We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173525
The purpose of this paper is the determination of sources and pattern of business cycle in Turkey throughout the period 1988-2002 using quarterly data. The question of the paper is "Has financial liberalization increased the fragility of the financial and real sides of the Turkish economy?". The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011529029
We discover sentiment-driven equilibria in popular models of imperfect risk sharing. In these equilibria, sentiment dynamics behave like uncertainty shocks, in the sense that self-fulfilled beliefs about volatility drive aggregate fluctuations. Because such fluctuations can decouple from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015329687
We study the macroeconomic consequences of financial shocks and increase in economic risk using a quantile vector autoregression. Financial shocks have a negative, but asymmetric impact on the real economy: they substantially increase growth at risk, but have limited impact on upside potential....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295559
The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010440436
In this paper we examine the empirical features of both the business and financial cycles in Italy. We employ univariate and multivariate trend-cycle decompositions based on unobserved component models. Univariate estimates highlight the different cyclical properties (persistence, duration and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946374