The paper examines statistical and economic evidence of out-of-sample bond return predictability for a real … economic value for investors. Furthermore, we find that strong statistical and economic evidence of bond return predictability … levered investments in bonds can improve short-run bond return predictability …

interest rates - is a strong predictor of U.S. Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return … qualitatively replicates the predictability pattern of IRVRP for bond returns. …

This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond …

This research investigates the macro factors for forecasting (1) bond risk premia and (2) term structure of government … bond yields by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on empirical prior. Different from the traditional variable … further improve the other method's forecasting performance. The performance of using BMA to forecast bond excess return is …