This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Using a...

This paper estimates a three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). This necessitates a mixedfrequency approach that can...

Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada fs current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative. Based on a dynamic factor model (DFM) methodology, we use a broad range of...

This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data. The model is then used to generate nowcasts, predictions of the recent past and...

Bayesian predictive synthesis is a flexible method of combining density predictions. The flexibility comes from the ability to choose an arbitrary synthesis function to combine predictions. I study the choice of synthesis function when combining large numbers of predictions-a common occurrence...

Adrian, Boyarchenko and Giannone (2019, ABG) adapt Quantile Regression (QR) methods to examine the relationship between U.S. economic growth and financial conditions. We confirm their empirical findings, using their methodology and their pre-2016 sample. Mindful of the importance of the Covid-19...

The Business Leaders' Pulse is a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision making while also creating a platform to analyze business conditions and uncertainty. Since May 2021, the Bank has been...