Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the information content of the variables that can help detecting external and internal imbalances in an early stage. The starting point is the Scoreboard, where nine indicators are chosen in order to increase macroeconomic surveillance of...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the significance of a set of macroeconomic variables in the assessment of the sovereign ratings provided by the three main credit rating agencies in different periods in time and for countries belonging to different categorizations. Ratings have a great...

In this paper we compare the dynamic properties of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM) with those of QUEST III, the endogenous growth model of the European Commission (DG ECFIN) in the version calibrated for Italy. We consider an array of shocks often examined in policy simulations and...

This paper provides a full technical description of a variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model (IGEM), a dynamic general equilibrium model used as a laboratory for policy analysis at the Department of the Italian Treasury. This version of IGEM presents four specific key features: (i)...

This paper extends IGEM, the dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian economy currently in use at the Italian Department of the Treasury for economic policy analysis. In this new variant of the model the public sector is explicitly modelled as suppliers of goods and services. With this...

We estimate with Bayesian techniques the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model (IGEM), which has been developed at the Italian Treasury Department, Ministry of Economy and Finance, to assess the effects of alter-native policy interventions. We analyze and discuss the estimated effects of...

This paper studies the potential effects on the Italian economy of various reform packages in the spirit of the Europe 2020 strategy. Using the European Commission's model QUEST III with R&D calibrated to match important features of the Italian economy, we provide a quantitative assessment of...

This paper provides a full technical account of the Italian General Equilibrium Model (IGEM), a new dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian economy developed at the Department of Treasury of the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance. IGEM integrates typical New Keynesian...