We present a model of succession in a firm owned and managed by its founder. The founder decides between hiring a professional manager or leaving management to his heir, as well as on how much, if any, of the shares to float on the stock exchange. We assume that a professional is a better...

In Europe, a huge share of firms is family owned. Since family firms are known to be more risk averse concerning international transactions, an interesting question emerges: Do family firms adopt a different international sourcing pattern. Altering the Gloubal Sourcing model of Antràs and...

This paper analyzes the predictability of emerging market currency crises by comparing the often used probit model to a new method, namely a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model. According to the results, both models were able to signal currency crises reasonably well...

In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have, on average, grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a robust negative...

In the present paper, we develop a two-sector general equilibrium model of a small open economy to explore the transmission mechanisms of external financial shocks. In particular, we use a cash-in- advance model with limited participation augmented with a financial friction in the form of a...

This article assesses the recent performance of the Turkish economy, questioning whether the currently observed unusual boom conditions will lead to a process of sustainable growth. The latest phase of Turkish neo-liberal transformation in the post-2001 era is placed in a broader historical and...

Der vorliegende Aufsatz untersucht die Ursachen von Finanzmarktkrisen anhand entsprechender Vorkommnisse in Thailand, Mexiko und Tschechien, um risikoreiche Konstellationen für Emerging Markets zu identifizieren. Als Modell wurde der Ansatz von Sachs/Tornell/Velasco (1996) gewählt, der durch...

In this paper we question the consensus of using a binary crisis definition for empirical crisis models. We believe that the most severe shortcomings of the crisis models today are in the crisis definition rather than the explanatory variables. We present a crisis model that is specified for a...

This paper surveys the recent literature on fiscal sustainability, with particular emphasis on emerging market countries. It discusses the main elements that differentiate emerging market countries from industrial countries and then discusses how probabilistic models can help to evaluate fiscal...

Using structural VARs, I find that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect quickly and strongly interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market. The price level and real output in...