forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis … produces systematically better forecasts than a random walk for most of the countries, and at any forecast horizon, including …

. Building on the forecast combination literature, the paper examines the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast …

the Euro by applying the cointegration analysis to exchange rates. The introduction of the Euro has changed the structure … the introduction of a new currency has resulted in inefficient markets, a bivariate cointegration analysis should be …